Future earning-capacity evidence
How can a lost promotion or career progression be proved in a CTP damages claim?
Show the most likely career path with objective evidence, not aspiration alone
A lost promotion or career opportunity can form part of future economic loss only if the evidence supports a probable without-accident path and shows how the injury impaired the capacity to follow it. Section 4.7 of the Motor Accident Injuries Act requires the assumptions about future earning capacity to accord with the claimant's most likely future circumstances but for the injury, followed by an adjustment for the possibility that those events might not have occurred. A promotion is not guaranteed merely because it was discussed or desired. Performance records, promotion criteria, training, applications, employer evidence, labour-market data and medical restrictions can be important.
The question is not whether promotion was imaginable. It is what probably would have occurred, when, on what terms and with what risk. A claimant already acting in a higher role with strong performance evidence presents a different case from someone who had not applied or met the entry requirements.
The injury must also explain the lost capacity. A promotion may have required physical duties, travel, long hours, concentration, licensing or further study. The medical and vocational evidence should address those demands specifically.
Reviewed by Herman Chan, Stephen Young Lawyers
Build the without-accident career path
Start with the position held, tenure, qualifications, performance reviews and actual progression before the accident. Identify the next role, selection process, usual timeframe and pay structure. Internal policies and evidence from a manager can be more persuasive than a general statement that promotion was expected.
If the claimant was studying or retraining, provide enrolment, results, completion history and the occupation the qualification ordinarily led to. A new career plan formed only after the accident may still be relevant to mitigation, but it is not evidence that the same path was probable beforehand.
Account for uncertainties openly: competition, business restructure, probation, variable bonuses, career breaks and labour-market conditions. Section 4.7 requires the assumptions and the percentage adjustment for possibilities to be stated in an award. Hiding risk weakens credibility.
Connect the injury to the lost opportunity
Medical reports should identify the functional limits that prevent the higher role, such as lifting, prolonged driving, executive concentration, stress tolerance or hours. A diagnosis without role demands does not establish earning-capacity loss.
Vocational evidence can compare the claimant's residual capacity with the inherent requirements and alternative occupations. Employer evidence can address whether modified duties, part-time performance or deferred training were available. The claimant should document attempts to remain employed and any reasons they failed.
A promotion may still occur later, which changes rather than necessarily eliminates the loss. The schedule can model delayed progression, reduced probability, lower hours or a different career ceiling, provided every assumption is explained.
Calculate the difference without presenting certainty
Compare probable earnings on the supported career path with likely earnings in the injured state. Include base salary, reliably evidenced employment benefits and timing. Do not automatically include the maximum advertised salary, every bonus or indefinite overtime.
The future stream is adjusted for contingencies and discounted to present value under sections 4.7 and 4.9. It may also need allowance for promotion probability, job security and the chance of recovery or alternative work. This is why a simple salary difference multiplied by years is not a lawful settlement calculator.
If the evidence supports only a general loss of earning capacity rather than one defined promotion, the claim should say so. A realistic buffer or alternative model may be more defensible than a precise but unsupported career ladder.
Practical next steps
Prove a lost career opportunity
Document the role, probability, injury barrier and financial effect.
Identify the exact opportunity
Record the role, criteria, selection date, pay and expected pathway.
Prove pre-accident progress
Collect reviews, acting duties, training, applications and manager evidence.
Map role demands to capacity
Ask medical and vocational experts to address the actual requirements.
Model realistic alternatives
Compare delayed, reduced and alternative-work outcomes.
State uncertainty
Explain each contingency and do not present promotion as guaranteed.
Evidence
Career-progression evidence checklist
The strongest claim joins employment history, role requirements and medical capacity.
- Performance reviews, awards and disciplinary history.
- Position descriptions and promotion criteria.
- Acting appointments, applications and interview records.
- Qualifications, training records and study results.
- Employer or manager statements about likely progression.
- Medical restrictions linked to the role demands.
- Vocational and labour-market evidence where needed.
- Earnings models showing timing, assumptions and contingencies.
What usually does not prove a lost promotion
- A personal hope without objective progress evidence.
- Using the top salary without proving likely appointment or timing.
- A medical diagnosis that does not address job demands.
- Ignoring competition, restructure or normal career risk.
- Assuming the person would never work in another suitable role.
Timing
Career evidence becomes harder to recover with time
Preserve contemporary records while managers, systems and recruitment material remain available.
- Request performance and recruitment records promptly.
- Record career discussions and acting duties while witnesses remember them.
- The damages claim remains subject to the general three-year period and any statutory exceptions.
- A current insurer decision may have a shorter review period even while expert evidence is being prepared.
Frequently asked questions
- Must I already have been offered the promotion?
- No, but an offer is strong evidence. Without one, other objective evidence must show the opportunity was realistically probable.
- Can lost study or qualification progress be claimed?
- It may support a future earning-capacity case if the pre-accident course and likely occupational outcome are properly evidenced.
- What if I can still work but not in management?
- The loss may be the difference between the probable higher role and the work the injury now permits, subject to proof and contingencies.
- Does a later promotion end the claim?
- Not necessarily. It may reduce the duration or amount and require an updated model of delay or ongoing limitation.
- Can bonuses be included?
- Only to the extent a reliable history, policy or role evidence supports them. Variable outcomes should not be treated as guaranteed.
- Why is a percentage adjustment used?
- Section 4.7 requires future-loss assumptions to reflect the possibility that the projected events might not have occurred.
Related NSW CTP damages guides
Official sources
- Motor Accident Injuries Act 2017 (NSW), current in-force version
- SIRA: lump-sum compensation (common law damages)
- SIRA: apply for common-law damages (lump-sum compensation)
This page uses the current Motor Accident Injuries Act 2017, Motor Accident Injuries Regulation 2017, Motor Accident Guidelines version 10.1 and the other official sources listed below. Damages and statutory benefits are separate parts of the NSW CTP scheme, and the result depends on the accident date, fault, injury, evidence and procedural history.
Career-loss review
Has the accident changed a supported promotion or career path?
Send the role criteria, performance and training records, medical capacity evidence and insurer response. We can identify which assumptions are supportable and what remains speculative.
General information only: This page provides general NSW CTP information, not legal, financial, tax, accounting or estate advice. It does not establish eligibility, calculate a settlement, create or extend a time limit, or guarantee that an insurer, the Personal Injury Commission or a court will accept a claim or item of loss.